Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
